Political betting in Europe 2026: Where it is legal and how it works

In 2024, more than $3.6 billion was traded on Polymarket’s US presidential election market.Prediction markets, also known as event contracts, such as Polymarket, have no unified regulation in all European jurisdictions.

But without prediction markets, can you bet on politics in Europe?

Political gambling markets are available on sportsbooks, which offer fixed-odds, and betting exchanges, where users back or lay bets against other bettors, in the UK, among other European nations.

Markets often include the next prime minister/president, election winner, next party leader, and the number of seats a party wins.

So, how does political betting work? Is political betting legal in Europe, and where can you actually bet on politics? 

Key findings

• Political betting is legal and established in Great Britain, Ireland, and Italy, but prohibited or unlicensable in Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Portugal.
• There is no pan-European framework: each regulator’s list of authorised betting categories decides whether election markets can be offered at all.
• UKGC-licensed operators need no additional certification to run political markets, but remain bound by betting-integrity rules on inside information.
• Polymarket and Kalshi hold no licence in any of the European jurisdictions covered here, and at least ten European countries have blocked access to Polymarket.
• Sportsbooks price against a 2–5% margin, exchanges price user-to-user and charge commission, and prediction markets price event contracts by supply and demand.

What is political betting?

Political betting on sportsbook platforms works similarly to traditional sports markets.

The sportsbook offers several markets on a political event, such as ‘Next UK General Election – Overall Majority’, and sets odds for each party.

A bettor could back Labour to win at 4/1 (5.00); on this market selection, the bet would only pay if Labour won an overall majority.

Other UK politics markets include ‘Next Prime Minister after Andy Burnham’, ‘Year of Next UK General Election’, and ‘Next Permanent Reform UK Leader after Nigel Farage.’

Political betting may also take place on betting exchanges, where users wager against other users, rather than the house.

A user can decide whether to back or lay political wagers on a variety of betting exchanges, such as Betfair Exchange and Smarkets.

Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, where users trade contracts on the outcome of future events, are established in the US, but no European jurisdiction other than Gibraltar has licensed them as of September 17, 2026. 

Is political betting legal in Europe?

Each jurisdiction in Europe has its own gambling commission and laws that determine whether political betting is licensed.

Laws, regulations, and political betting market maturity vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.

For example, in the UK, licensed sportsbooks and betting exchanges have offered political markets for several years. UKGC-licensed platforms don’t need to gain additional certification to offer political markets on their sportsbooks.

This contrasts with Germany, where the German GGL (Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder) states that political bets are not licensable and are therefore illegal. 

Meanwhile, the UKGC has indicated that any prediction market operating in Great Britain would require a Gambling Commission licence and, if approved, would be classified as a “Betting Intermediary” under the Gambling Act 2005.

Polymarket and Kalshi, two of the world’s largest prediction-market platforms, are not currently licensed by the UK Gambling Commission to operate as betting intermediaries in Great Britain.

As of 17 September 2026, neither Polymarket nor Kalshi holds a licence in any European jurisdiction, including those in the table below. 

Where can you engage in political betting? 

How to bet on politics depends on the platform you use. Providing the laws and regulations enable users to do so, there are three main types of gambling platforms where political wagers can be placed.

Sportsbooks

In the UK, Ireland, and Italy, sportsbooks offer political markets. Users wager against the house, which may include a margin of 2–5% in their betting odds.

Examples: bet365, Paddy Power, and Sky Bet

Betting exchanges

In the UK, users can place political wagers on betting exchanges, where the price of odds is set by another user who lays the bet. As the odds are set by other users, not the house, they do not include a margin. However, most betting exchanges take a commission fee.

Examples: Betfair Exchange and Smarkets

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are licensed in the US and, in Europe, in Gibraltar. Users can buy and sell event contracts that pay out based on whether specified future events, such as ‘Will the Democratic Party win the next election?’, occur.

Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi may be available to download and place wagers from in certain European countries, but that does not mean they’re licensed in that particular jurisdiction.

Germany, Belgium, Romania, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Poland, Greece, Cyprus, Ukraine and Portugal have blocked access to Polymarket, citing its provision of gambling services without the necessary licence.

However, Europe does have a licensed example. ADI Predictstreet, operated by Predict Street Limited, is licensed as a betting intermediary by the Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner under the Gambling Act 2025, and lists politics among the categories it covers alongside economics, sport, finance, and current affairs. In Great Britain, the product reaches users through Matchbook’s betting-exchange licence, where political markets are already permitted.

Examples: Polymarket, Kalshi, and ADI Predictstreet

Sportsbooks vs betting exchanges vs prediction markets

While prediction markets are often discussed alongside sportsbooks and betting exchanges, they cannot be considered a legally distinct alternative to gambling.

Their regulatory classification varies depending on the jurisdiction and the nature of the contract. 

ESMA states that whether an event contract qualifies as a financial instrument depends on the underlying event, while some contracts may also qualify as bets under national gambling legislation. 

What are the most popular political betting markets?

Several sportsbook sites offer UK, Ireland, US, and Australian political betting markets.

Availability for political betting markets of other nations, such as Canada, Brazil, and Germany, may depend on the sportsbook and real-world events. 

Political betting UK markets remain the most consistently available, with sportsbooks pricing elections, leadership contests, and by-elections year-round. 

For example, if there is an upcoming major election in France or Germany, Paddy Power may offer betting markets for those nations.

The Irish sportsbook currently offers nine political UK markets, including election betting:

• Next General Election – Overall Majority
• Most Seats
• Holborn and St Pancras By-Election 2026
• Next Prime Minister after Andy Burnham
• Year Kemi Badenoch Replaced as Conservative Leader
• Year of Next UK General Election
• Next Permanent Reform UK Leader after Nigel Farage
• Next Conservative Leader and London Mayor after Sadiq Khan.

How do political betting odds work?

Political betting odds vary depending on whether bettors use sportsbooks, betting exchanges, or prediction markets.

Sportsbook odds are based on opinion polls, historical election results, constituency-level data, political developments, and algorithmic analysis. Political odds are not fixed once the market opens. 

Political betting odds frequently change from the moment the market opens to when it closes. For example, if a major opinion poll indicates Labour are more likely to win the next general election, their odds in the ‘Next General Election – Overall Majority’ market may fall.

Election odds also respond to public money; if a significant number of bettors back Reform to win the ‘Next General Election – Overall Majority’ market, their odds may drop, regardless of whether the actual probability has changed.

By contrast, odds on betting exchanges are set by other users. Individual users may experiment with their own pricing strategy or copy the odds offered by sportsbooks.

On prediction markets, prices are determined by supply and demand as users buy and sell contracts based on the likelihood of an event occurring.

A contract trading at $0.70, for example, can generally be interpreted as the market assigning roughly a 70% probability to the outcome, although prices can fluctuate as traders respond to new information and changing market sentiment.

How big is political betting?

There is no Europe-wide figure on political betting’s market value.

However, where bettors can place wagers on both sportsbook sites and betting exchanges, the UK political betting market has demonstrated significant activity.

According to reports, the 2024 UK General Election generated £150 million in betting turnover.

What is the future of political betting in Europe?

The future of political betting in Europe will depend heavily on how individual jurisdictions regulate sportsbooks, betting exchanges, and prediction markets.

While political gambling is an established market in countries such as the UK, Ireland, and Italy, several major European gambling markets prohibit or restrict betting on political events.

The growing popularity of prediction markets complicates the regulatory scene further.

Whether event contracts are treated as gambling products, financial instruments, or another form of market will remain an important regulatory question.

Speaking to European Gaming in July, Roman Baranovskyi, head of iGaming and investment practice at SBSB Fintech Lawyers, said both escape routes are now closing:

‘Calling yourself a derivative no longer gets you out of gambling law, and calling yourself gambling no longer gets you out of financial law either.’

FAQs

What is political betting?

Wagering on a political outcome, an election result, a leadership contest, or how many seats a party wins. On a sportsbook you bet against the house at fixed odds; on an exchange you bet against other users.

Is political betting legal in Europe?

It varies by country. Great Britain, Ireland, and Italy license it. Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Portugal do not, because election outcomes fall outside their authorised betting categories.

Can you bet on politics in the UK?

Yes. UKGC-licensed sportsbooks and exchanges have offered political markets for years, and betting is not restricted to sport, so no extra certification is needed. Integrity rules on inside information still apply.

Where can you bet on political events?

You can bet on political events on three types of platform: sportsbooks such as bet365, Paddy Power, and Sky Bet; betting exchanges such as Betfair Exchange and Smarkets; and prediction markets. Sportsbooks and exchanges hold national gambling licences. Among prediction markets, only Gibraltar-licensed ADI Predictstreet is authorised in Europe, Polymarket and Kalshi are not.

What is the difference between political betting and prediction markets?

A bet is a stake at odds set by a bookmaker or another user. A prediction market is a traded Yes/No contract priced by supply and demand, so $0.70 implies roughly a 70% chance. Regulators treat the two differently depending on the jurisdiction and the event.

How do political betting odds work?

Bookmakers price elections off polling, past results, constituency data, and news, then move the odds as money arrives. Exchange odds come from users laying bets, so there is no bookmaker margin. Prediction-market prices follow supply and demand.

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